From Patrick Ruffini at The Next Right, citing internal NRCC polling data:
The Tarrance Group for the NRCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/9 in parens):
Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 29 (56)
Tom Rooney (R): 55 (31)
(MoE: ±5.8%)The Democrats are toast in this district if Mahoney stays in. And I seem to remember something about the incumbent’s name staying on the ballot if he does withdraw.
Mahoney’s political career is over. What I don’t know is if the Democrats can find a replacement for him on such short notice even if he does withdraw.