This is not the score of a lopsided basketball game. That’s the number of events Obama/Biden have made in swing states compared to McCain/Palin. From the Wall Street Journal:

Sen. Barack Obama, his running mate and his wife have appeared at twice as many events in swing states as their Republican counterparts, which may help explain the Democrat’s lead in many battleground-state polls.

In the five weeks since the fall campaign officially began, Sen. Obama, his wife, Michelle, and vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden have appeared at a total of 95 separate events in states that both sides are contesting.

Sen. John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, have appeared at 55 events in those areas, with Cindy McCain, the nominee’s wife, adding only one more to the total, according to a Wall Street Journal tally based on schedules provided by the campaigns.
Stopping By Swing States

See how many times the candidates, their running mates and their wives have stopped by hotly contested battleground states.

The gap makes a difference in the amount of press that each ticket gets in critical markets — and is mirrored by a similar disparity in TV advertising. Sen. Obama outspent Sen. McCain and the Republican National Committee on ads in 15 states for the week ended Oct. 4, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, an initiative at the University of Wisconsin. The Republicans spent more in just two states.

The effect: The Democrats are being seen much more often, in free news coverage and in paid advertising, in the states that will determine the winner.

The article also includes a handy chart keeping track of both campaigns’ ad spending in key swing states. Obama is outspending McCain in all of them (in some cases, by a rate of nearly 4 to 1) except Iowa and Minnesota.

The McCain campaign has a new argument why you should vote for them:

Implying that the GOP won’t win back either the House or Senate, two McCain backers this morning sounded out a new talking point by raising the specter of Democrats in control of both the Congress and White House.

Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager, posed it as a question.

“Do we really believe that the American public is going to feel safe by having both the head of the Congress and the head of the White House from the same party that has had so many challenges with the way they’ve run Washington over the last couple of years?” Davis asked in an appearance opposite Obama adviser David Axelrod in an appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”

In the show’s next segment, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a frequent McCain surrogate and vice presidential runner-up, fleshed out the argument.

“I don’t think the country is going to like the Democratic Party running the table on taxes, on education, on health care and have kind of the liberal, unchecked, imbalanced approach to all of those issues,” Pawlenty said. “It’s going to be bad for the country. I think having John McCain as president to balance that out and be able to work across the aisle as he has throughout his career to get things done would be a good compromise, a good balance.”

Pawlenty added: “People like balance, especially in Minnesota.”

First, although it was a longshot to begin with, this is an explicit concession that the Republicans will not retake Congress this November. This is effectively a finger in the eye of the NRSC and the NRCC, whose jobs are to raise money and get Republicans elected to the Senate and House. Comments like these from McCain’s campaign manager and from a top surrogate are not going to be helpful when it comes to asking GOP donors for more money in the home stretch.

Second, the argument for divided government is valid because it forces compromise, especially if someone like McCain were president. The problem is that the GOP had the trifecta for most of the last 8 years and ran Washington with an iron fist. Remember President Bush’s mandate after being re-elected four years ago? How about Karl Rove’s dream of a permanent Republican majority?

Given the events of the last few years and a fundamental realignment of the American electorate, the Republican brand has become so damaged now, people are not going to be in a very forgiving mood. The divided government argument is going to go over like a lead balloon with voters at large and even more so with the Republican base.

Update: Vaughn Ververs has this note on how the divided government argument is making the rounds among McCain campaign operatives and conservative talking heads. His concluding assessment about its merits as a political tactic is blunt :

Unfortunately for Republicans, it’s not the kind of campaign theme that fits well on a bumper sticker. Stop A Democratic Majority, Vote McCain, isn’t a slogan that’s going to turn around the race. If that becomes the rallying cry, it’s an indication of just how narrow their window of opportunity has become.

My friend and former classmate Hanna Ingber Win has this compelling comment on how Muslims have become the new “other” in political discourse. Read it.

I’d add one observation: Barack Obama is on the verge of breaking the racial glass ceiling to the highest elected office in the country. Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi broke new ground for women in politics during the last two years. What I’m wondering now is when, if ever, we will see a viable Muslim candidate for national office from either political party?

Who needs surrogates and a press operation when you’ve got the other candidate doing their work for them?

(CNN) — John McCain predicted Sunday he would beat Barack Obama at the final presidential debate this week.

“After I whip his you-know-what in this debate, we’re going to be going out 24/7,” the Republican nominee told volunteers at his campaign headquarters in Arlington, Virginia, sparking laughter and applause from the group. McCain immediately added: “I want to emphasize again, I respect Senator Obama. We will conduct a respectful race, and we will make sure that everybody else does, too.”

McCain has effectively raised the bar for himself for the last debate.  The pressure was already on him to begin with after losing the first two debates.  Now, anything less than a thorough drubbing will be painted as a failure. How much do you want to bet we’ll be hearing “John McCain failed to whip Senator Obama’s you-know-what in the debate,” ad nauseam from Obama’s surrogates in the spin room after the debate? If you make a drinking game out of every time that phrase is quoted by Democratic operatives between now and Wednesday night, you won’t have much of a liver or kidneys left by Thursday morning.

Chinese Democracy

Posted: October 12, 2008 in Hell Freezes Over, Music
Tags: ,

I’ll believe this when the album is in my cold dead hands.

Well, it’s looking more and more likely that Guns N’ Roses’ follow-up to 1991’s Use Your Illusion albums, Chinese Democracy, will actually see the retail light of day in our lifetime.

Last month there were rumors that frontman Axl Rose had inked a deal with Best Buy allowing the chain to be the album’s sole purveyor, and that GN’R’s manager, Andy Gould, told 900 Best Buy employees during a Dallas convention that the LP would be on store shelves by November 25. Now comes word from Hits Daily Double (you need to register to access the site) that Interscope has arrived at a hard-and-fast, set-your-clock-to-it release date of November 23.

Although a spokesperson for Interscope had not responded to MTV News’ requests to confirm the report as of press time, Hits Daily Double claims the record will drop the Sunday prior to Thanksgiving, giving the record a full seven days at retail before entering the December 2 Billboard chart; typically, albums are released in the U.S. on Tuesdays.

With the site reporting a firm release date, it seems Chinese Democracy is finally imminent, but without label confirmation, the report could just be the latest in a long string of rumors. A track from the album called “If the World” accompanies the closing credits of “Body of Lies,” the new thriller starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe. Plus, Guns N’ Roses’ song “Shackler’s Revenge” appears on the new “Rock Band 2” video game.

If the report is true, then November 23 marks the end to what’s been a 17-year saga, rife with broken promises, confusing delays and rock criticism punch lines. And you’d have to imagine no one could be happier about it than Rose himself. In 2006, in an online posting that promised the band would do its best to have the record ready for release that year, the frontman said that “to say the making of this album has been an unbearably long and incomprehensible journey would be an understatement.

John Lewis went there. From NBC’s First Read:

Georgia congressman John Lewis — a civil rights leader and a man once deemed by John McCain as one of the “wisest” men he knew and one whose advice he would seek as president — today likened the “negative tone” of McCain’s campaign to that of incendiary segregation advocate George Wallace in the 1960s.

“What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history,” Lewis wrote in a statement first posted on Politico’s website. “Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse.”

Noting that Alabama governor and presidential candidate George Wallace “never threw a bomb” but “created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights,” Lewis attributed the 1963 bombing of a Birmingham church to the racial division sown by Wallace’s political rhetoric.

“As public figures with the power to influence and persuade, Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are playing with fire, and if they are not careful, that fire will consume us all,” the statement continues. “They are playing a very dangerous game that disregards the value of the political process and cheapens our entire democracy. We can do better. The American people deserve better.”

The McCain campaign responded with a strongly-worded statement calling Lewis’s remarks “brazen and baseless,” and asking that Obama “personally repudiate these outrageous and divisive comments.”

Although Lewis and others are well within their rights to attack the McCain campaign for the vitriolic rhetoric they are stoking among their supporters, Lewis went too far here. Yes, Wallace had a long and well-documented history of inflammatory rhetoric (“Segregation today, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever,” anyone?) but to try to compare or associate McCain/Palin with it is coming dangerously close to calling them racist.

Every campaign or public figure has their fringe supporters, regardless of the issue or where they fall on the political spectrum. While the words and actions of a handful of bigoted individuals has drawn the attention of the national media and the blogosphere, their misguided views should not be attributed to the candidates they support.

At the same time, the McCain campaign need to realize that they have to be careful in what they say by energizing an angry, hyper-partisan element of their base who believe the most outlandish conspiracy theories and Internet rumors about Barack Obama. Use of specific codewords or phrases triggers a response from them similar to Pavlov’s dog experiment. They need to cool down their rhetoric before things get out of control.

Although his specialty is national security affairs and terrorism, the New Yorker’s Steve Coll has written two blog entries about the current state of the global economy, with extensive reference to historical analogies to make his points about where we are right now.

One is about the impact of the economy on the next president’s national security agenda. The other is a history of market panics going back to the Great Depression.

Both are must-reads.

If the candidates’ itineraries are a reflection of their internal polling and the morale at their campaigns, then Sarah Palin’s newly announced bus tour of West Virginia should tell you a lot.

CLEVELAND, Ohio (CNN) — In what may be another signal that the troubled economy is forcing John McCain’s campaign to play electoral map defense, Sarah Palin has scheduled a bus tour for Sunday through West Virginia, a state that’s been leaning red throughout this presidential race.

Palin had already scheduled a bus tour of Pennsylvania on Saturday, but she will now repeat that act on Sunday by making various unannounced stops throughout West Virginia, culminating in a campaign event in southeast Ohio. It’s a swing geographically reminiscent of Hillary Clinton’s effort during the Democratic primary to court white working class voters in Appalachia. Clinton won the West Virginia primary over Barack Obama by a whopping 67-26 margin.

Look at the map and you will find that McCain and Palin are playing a lot of defense trying to keep the states Bush won in 2004. They’ve conceded Michigan, and are largely focusing their efforts on the Big Three: Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania to a lesser degree.

Obama was routed by Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primaries in West Virginia and other neighboring white blue collar states. Polls show the race here is tightening, and a recent ARG poll gives Obama an 8-point lead, although this one is probably an outlier. If he can rally a unified Democratic base along with riding a wave of national disillusionment largely driven by the state of the economy, he may be able to make a last minute run at winning West Virginia.

As we enter the home stretch before the election, the pattern is holding. Barack Obama’s map to 270 is expanding, while McCain’s has remained stagnant and is limited to holding the Bush states from 2000 and 2004.

Update: According to Ben Smith, Palin landed in West Virginia but went campaigning in Ohio. State Democrats held several counter-events over the weekend.

D’oh!

Posted: October 11, 2008 in Humor
Tags:

Some funny pictures compiled at QandO Blog. The video is priceless.

From the Albany Times Union:

TROY — It could have been Ovama or Ofama. Or even Olama.

But with one “s” the Rensselaer County Board of Elections turned a single wrong letter into a national embarrassment Friday.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s last name is spelled “Osama” on some 300 absentee ballots mailed out this week to voters in Rensselaer County hilltowns.

Is it a Freudian slip, intentional gaffe or a mistake? Voters are sure to have opinions, and one politician pointed out that the letters “s” and “b” are not exactly keyboard neighbors.

“Of all the letters to hit by mistake,” County Democratic Chairman Tom Wade said. “Unfortunately it is a mistake which negatively impacts our Democratic candidate for president.”

The typo was first reported Friday on timesunion.com, and quickly grabbed national attention.

“It was crazy, everybody across the country called,” said Edward McDonough, the county’s Democratic elections commissioner. He said calls came in from The New York Times, the New York Post, Daily News, Wall Street Journal and Court TV.