Archive for the ‘Barack Obama’ Category

Karl Rove during an interview with NPR in October 2006:

SIEGEL: But you’ve seen the DeWine race and the Santorum race – I don’t want to have you call races.

Mr. ROVE: Yeah, I’m looking at all these, Robert, and adding them up, and I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math, but you’re entitled to your math, I’m entitled to the math.

Final outcome? Democrats took control of the House and Senate.

Karl Rove on Fox News during Election Night 2012
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Final outcome? President Obama won Ohio, and the presidency, as other news organizations made the same call.

Naturally, Jon Stewart had a field day with this.

Update: The Sunlight Foundation crunched the numbers and found that American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS – Karl Rove’s two super PACs – spent a combined $175 million in this election and not a single one of their supported candidates won.

12:02 am – CNN projecting that the marijuana legalization amendment on the ballot in Colorado has passed. #rockymountainhigh
12:06 am – From the Washington Post’s Felicia Sonmez: Crowd here at Romney HQ has noticeably thinned out over the last ten mins
12:10 am – Fox News calls Colorado for Obama.
AP calls Arizona Senate race for Republican Jeff Flake
12:18 am – From Buzzfeed’s Ben Smith: This is the broadest re-election mandate since Reagan in 1984.

11:00 pm – Polls about to close on the West Coast (California, Oregon, Washington State), Hawaii and Alaska. No swing states here, Obama will take everything but Alaska.
11:03 pm – CNN calls Wisconsin for Obama, North Carolina for Romney.
John King just pointed out that all of the Romney campaign’s backup plans for Ohio (PA, MI, WI) have failed. “What’s Plan E?”
From Jonathan Martin: A longtime FL GOP operative sez: “Not good. I-4 way off.”
11:15 pm – CNN calls Iowa and New Mexico for Obama. Romney is running out of options fast.
CNN calls Oregon for Obama. Current Electoral College count is Obama 256 Romney 191.
11:17 pm – NBC News has called the race for Obama.
CNN calls Missouri for Romney.
11:18 pm – BREAKING: CNN projects Barack Obama has won re-election, after calling Ohio for the president.
11:21 pm – From Barack Obama: Four more years. pic.twitter.com/bAJE6Vom
11:27 pm – Fox News reporting that Romney campaign is disputing the networks calling Ohio.
11:38 pm – CBS News calls Nevada for Obama.
11:46 pm – From Michael Scherer: Obama staff leaving Chicago HQ chanting “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts … CAN’T LOSE!” after victory declared, per witness.
Charles Krauthammer on Fox offers to write prescriptions for anybody feeling depressed.
CNN calls Nevada for Obama, up to 280 votes in the Electoral College.
11:53 pm – From Dave Weigel: Nobody tell Rove, but the Ohio GOP has conceded and gone home. pic.twitter.com/SDPp82zh
CBS News calls Colorado for Obama.

10:00 pm – Polls in Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah about to close. Key state to watch here is Nevada, which Obama campaign feels very good about. Iowa also another one to watch.
10:05 pm – CNN calls New Hampshire for Obama.
From The Atlantic: Romney health care advisor: ‘Congrats to my Dem friends. Best wishes for the new administration’ http://theatln.tc/alDa3L
49 percent of the vote in Ohio, Obama leads 51-47.
10:09 pm – NBC calls Missouri Senate race for incumbent Claire McCaskill. Another lost opportunity for the Republicans.
10:16 pm – According to CNN’s Dana Bash, it is now mathematically impossible for Republicans to take control of the Senate.
On CNN just now – James Carville: “It looks like President Obama’s going to carry Florida.” Alex Castellanos: “I hate it when he’s right.”
10:26 pm – From Blake Hounshell: Karl Rove sounding like Baghdad Bob right about now.
There are going to be a lot of pissed off GOP billionaires right now who bankrolled super PACs and have nothing to show for it.
10:45 pm – NBC calls Minnesota for Obama.
From Al Gore: I am confident in saying that President Obama is going to carry the state of Florida tonight. http://bit.ly/PpLrD1 #Current2012
10:54 pm – AP calls North Carolina for Romney.
Polls closing at the top of the hour… Switching to a new thread.

9:00 pm – Another bunch of polls about to close, including two key swing states: Colorado and Wisconsin – Paul Ryan’s home state.
9:02 pm – CNN calls Michigan for Barack Obama… Huge political and symbolic loss for Romney.
Electoral College stands at Romney 152 Obama 123.
9:05 pm – CNN Washington Bureau chief Sam Feist teasing a major projection on Twitter.
9:08 pm – Here’s the projection: Republicans will keep control of the House of Representatives.
9:09 pm – CNN’s Dana Bash says Democratic sources telling her Republicans could end up with a net gain of seats in the House after polls on the West Coast close. Some Democrats upset that Obama didn’t do anything to help House Democrats, save for one robocall on behalf of Tammy Duckworth.
9:15 pm – HUGE CALL: NBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama.
With Romney losing Pennsylvania, he has effectively lost his backup plan if he fails to win Ohio.
9:32 pm – Another nail in Romney’s coffin: CBS calls Wisconsin – Paul Ryan’s home state – for Obama.
9:35 pm – Fox News calls the Indiana Senate race for Democrat Joe Donnelly. This is another loss for Senate GOP, caused by Richard Mourdock’s self-inflicted wound.
Fox News calls Wisconsin Senate race for Democrat Tammy Baldwin.
9:42 pm – CBS News calls the Massachusetts Senate race for Elizabeth Warren.
9:44 pm – In discussing Obama voter turnout and wins in Midwest, Jessica Yellin notes that it looks like David Axelrod’s mustache will remain intact.
Political Wire: David Axelrod keeps his mustache with Obama wins in WI, MN and MI… http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/31/axelrod_bets_his_mustache.html
9:52 pm – Another loss for Romney. NBC calls New Hampshire – where Romney has a home – for Obama.
Another round of polls about to close at the top of the hour. Switching to a new thread.

8:00 pm – CNN calls Connecticut, Delaware, Washington DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts (Romney’s home state), Maine (3 out of 4 electoral votes) and Rhode Island for President Obama. Oklahoma called for Romney.
CNN exit poll of Florida is now 50-49.
Virginia numbers starting to come in. 5 percent of the vote in and Romney leads 59-40.
8:10 pm – CNN’s Erin Burnett reporting from Columbus, Ohio: 1.8 million people voted early or absentee. Those numbers starting to come in. Per CNN’s Martin Savidge in Cleveland, Obama is currently leading 176k to 72k.
8:14 pm – CNN calls Georgia for Romney. Obama leads Electoral College count 64-56 so far.
8:19 pm – CNN calls Maine Senate race for Independent candidate Angus King. First Republican loss of the night. Bob Corker, Bill Nelson, Tom Carper, Ben Cardin and Sheldon Whitehouse win reelection.
Huge upset in the making in Indiana: Joe Donnelly leading Richard Mourdock in Indiana Senate race 49-45.
8:25 pm – From The Week’s Marc Ambinder: Looks like Hispanic and young voters are slightly larger slices of the electorate than 2008. The Obama coalition appears – appears – solid
8:30 pm – 20 percent of the vote in from #Ohio, Obama leads 59-40 BUT that number will change. Most votes coming from Dem areas of the state.
56 percent of the votes in from Florida, Obama leads 51-48
8:32 pm – Roll Call declares Chris Murphy the winner in the Connecticut Senate race.
8:42 pm – CNN calls Alabama for Romney.
8:49 pm – CNN’s Dana Bash: Massachusetts and Indiana Senate races still too close to call.
8:57 pm – Another round of polls about to close. Starting another thread.

CNN’s Peter Hamby reports that the Romney campaign’s own final internal poll numbers had President Obama up by 5 in Ohio.

An anecdote from a Virginia voter I met earlier this evening: she went to vote at a polling place at a school in Alexandria at 6 o’clock this morning. There were already about 50 people in line at the time.

Two years and nearly $2 billion spent, it all comes down to tonight…  The first polls have closed in a handful of Eastern states. Buckle up folks, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

In the end, it will be Barack Obama’s firewall vs. Mitt Romney’s inside straight. My former professor Marc Cooper described the outlook for both candidates in poker terms several weeks ago: on the flop, Obama would have three aces, while Romney would have to draw an inside straight on the turn and the river in order to win. Obama simply has more options. The New York Times calculated 512 conceivable victory scenarios for both candidates. Of these, Obama has 431 ways to win, Romney has 76, and 5 scenarios end up with a tie.

Looking at the PBS electoral college map, it’s possible to illustrate some of the scenarios for tomorrow night. My model assumes that Romney has locked down North Carolina and will get a narrow win in Florida. In that scenario, the electoral map looks something like this:

If Obama’s Ohio firewall holds and he wins the state, as most polls indicate, that puts him at 265 electoral votes – five shy of reelection. You will hear this again and again during the next 48 hours: no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.

Despite historical precedent, it is mathematically possible for Romney to win the presidency while losing Ohio, but it will be very difficult. The only way Romney can win in this scenario is if he runs the board and wins every remaining swing state: New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, AND Nevada.

Nevada has been looking increasingly unlikely for Romney, but let’s set that issue aside and look at the Ohio firewall map from a different perspective. If Obama wins Ohio, he only needs one more state – Nevada, Colorado, Iowa or Virginia – and it’s game over for Romney.




If Obama wins New Hampshire, he comes up just short at 269 and still needs another state.

What it comes down to is options. Obama has plenty, Romney doesn’t have enough.

Final Prediction:

Obama reelected 303-235, winning every swing state except Florida and North Carolina and the popular vote by 49-48.
Nevada puts Obama over the top once polls close at 10 pm EST.