Icepicks and Nukes

The Huffington Post’s Sam Stein gets a scoop.   In a nutshell – Barack Obama is currently making contingency plans to assume control of the American government in case he wins the election.  John McCain is not.  The McCain campaign spin is that all personnel are focusing on winning the election now and will worry about the transition later if they win.   But taken into context with other signs in the McCain campaign, and it’s another bad omen for the GOP.

48 out of 50 states allocate their Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis. For example, whichever candidate wins a majority of the votes in Florida, he would get all of the state’s 27 votes.

The two states that are the exception to this rule are Maine and Nebraska, who allocate their Electoral College votes (5 in Nebraska, 4 in Maine) on the basis of their congressional districts (3 in Nebraska, 2 in Maine). Both states are reliably Republican or Democratic in presidential and but have bipartisan leanings when it comes to statewide elections.

Late in the race, two new battlegrounds have opened up. The 2nd congressional district in Nebraska (which includes Omaha), and the 2nd congressional district in Maine, which is predominantly rural. Both are worth 1 Electoral College vote apiece, and in a 269-269 scenario, where both sides tied with one vote shy of winning the presidency, either district could make or break the two campaigns.

There are two articles worth pointing out. The first, from the Omaha World-Herald:

In another sign that Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is in play in the race for the White House, Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin will speak at a public rally tonight in Omaha.
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It’s rare for a member of the national ticket in either party to visit traditionally Republican Nebraska this late in a presidential campaign. Obama drew about 10,000 people to an Omaha rally in February. GOP nominee John McCain was in Ashland, Neb., for a fundraiser in July.

First, the fact that they are even contemplating the possibility of McCain losing an Electoral College vote in Nebraska would have been unthinkable at this time last year, let alone in previous presidential elections where the GOP candidate swept all of the state’s votes. Second, the fact that the McCain campaign finds it necessary to send Palin to hold a rally there this late in the game, when they should be focusing their efforts on the swing states that will decide the election is NOT a good sign. This is especially important in light of McCain’s decision to concede Michigan a month before the election, which narrows his options on the map to hit 270.

The second article, on McCain’s efforts to win an Electoral College vote in Maine, from the Associated Press:

PORTLAND, Maine—With a moose-hunting hockey mom sharing the ticket, Republican John McCain plans to make a greater push in this state that has gone blue in recent elections but shares Sarah Palin’s embrace of hunting, snowmobiling and the outdoors.

McCain’s presidential campaign indicated it would put more resources into Maine as it decided to pull out of Michigan and cede that state to Democrat Barack Obama.

Of particular interest is Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, the largest east of the Mississippi, where Palin is more likely to find kindred spirits in the state’s rural north. The vast expanse of lakes, forests and coast may remind her of Alaska, where she serves as governor.
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Finally, there’s the possibility of splitting Maine’s four electoral votes. The state awards two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each of the two congressional districts. In a close race nationally, Republicans can’t afford to write off the one electoral vote from residents of the state’s rugged north.

Maine’s 2nd district mirrors rural Alaska in some ways. Favorite pastimes include hunting, fishing and snowmobiling. Palin’s husband is a snowmobile racer and commercial fisherman, and a video of Palin attests to her ability to field dress a moose.

First, the idea that they might win Maine because of some common elements with Alaska on the environment and hunting and snowmobiling is ridiculous on its face. This is from the same logic playbook that Palin has foreign policy experience because of Alaska’s proximity to Russia.

Second, Maine has a long history of voting for moderate Republicans. Both of the state’s current senators are Republican women. William Cohen is another example. Sarah Palin is a red-meat conservative Republican on everything – social issues, the economy, foreign policy, etc. While McCain may have some crossover appeal here because of the quirky libertarian streak that runs through parts of New England (especially in neighboring New Hampshire, which McCain won in 2000 and 2008), that does not mean it will automatically transfer to Sarah Palin.

The Obama campaign would be guilty of political malpractice if they took this district for granted, and according to the article, they have 30 offices in the state to promote their candidate. But the biggest question I have is why is the McCain campaign spending time, energy, and resources in Maine?

Ultimately, I think both campaigns’ posturing essentially amount to a paper tiger strategy, projecting an image of competitiveness on the other guy’s turf to force him to spend money and resources on defense. Both states and their votes will probably fall in line with historical trends – Nebraska for the GOP, Maine for the Democrats – but Obama has more resources to work with and as of this writing, a friendlier political environment and a bigger map to reach 270.

Politico’s Jonathan Martin gets the scoop of the day, as if the media talking heads and political operatives weren’t already aflutter because of the VP debate tonight.  McCain has thrown in the towel on any hopes of winning Michigan next month.  Staffers and resources are being relocated to Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.

This is significant because Michigan was one of the Kerry states McCain had a shot at winning (the other being New Hampshire), as well as his win here during the 2000 GOP primaries.  He lost to Mitt Romney the second time around.

Obama has gained momentum and opened up a lead in state and national polls against McCain.  He’s even forcing McCain to play defense in Indiana and Virginia, which were solid GOP states for more than 40 years.

The pressure is on McCain in two ways.  First, he’s financially boxed in by accepting public financing, so he only has $84 million to spend for the last 2 months of the race.  If the Obama fundraising juggernaut can keep up its pace, they could force McCain to make some very tough choices in the final stretch about where and how to allocate personnel, resources, and money.

Second, by conceding Michigan it raises the stakes for McCain to win in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio.  If he loses Pennsylvania, he MUST hang on to Florida and Ohio and hope he can run up an Electoral College lead elsewhere.  If he loses all three, it’s game over.

This is the first in a series I will be doing every week from now until Election Day. The following map shows the race as it stands right now, and divides the 50 states into three categories: McCain (Red), Obama (Blue), and Swing (Yellow).

I’ve allocated states for John McCain and Barack Obama based on traditional and current voting trends and demographics. As always, the swing states – by my count, the 16 states which can go in favor of either candidate on Election Day – will determine which candidate wins the White House in November. The magic number of Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency is 270, hence the title of this entry.

A brief observation about the 16 swing states in this year’s race: many of them are perennially up for grabs in presidential elections, among them three of the biggest prizes up for grabs: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Their importance cannot be overestimated: two of these states have ultimately decided the winner of the last two presidential elections.

But what makes this year unusual is that the GOP is forced to play defense in three states that have been reliably Republican for decades: North Carolina, which hasn’t gone to a Democrat since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign; and Virginia and Indiana, which were last won by Lyndon Johnson during his 1964 landslide victory. John Kerry made an attempt to pick up Virginia and North Carolina (the home state of his running mate John Edwards) four years ago, but ultimately gave up when poll numbers showed both states to be out of reach.

Montana is also a remote possibility as a swing state, although recent polls have the state leaning toward McCain. But the Democrats have had a bit of a resurgence at the state level in recent years. Historically, Bill Clinton won the state back in 1992, but he had help from Ross Perot, who siphoned off votes that might have otherwise gone to the incumbent president George H.W. Bush. George W. Bush routed Al Gore and John Kerry in Montana by 25 and 20 points respectively in his two presidential campaigns.

With the exception of these four states, the swing state map is virtually identical to 2004. In contrast, there are no solidly Democratic states (i.e. Massachusetts, Washington) that are up for grabs the way that Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and (to a lesser degree) Montana are now.

Based on recent trends and analysis, here’s what the map would look like if the election were held the week of September 29:

Barack Obama would win the election 291-247, with a majority of the swing states breaking in his favor. There are two reasons for this argument: first, James Carville’s famous line from the 1992 Clinton campaign “It’s the economy, stupid,”, second, the McCain campaign’s dizzying and near perpetual tailspin which began with the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on September 15, which shifted the focus of the campaign from lipstick on a pig and national security – considered John McCain’s strong subject – to the economy, a subject which polls show voters prefer the Democrats.

McCain’s downward spiral has gotten progressively worse with his decision to suspend his campaign, essentially drawing against Barack Obama during the first presidential debate which helped to solidify the Democrat’s standing in the national and state polls, the failure of Congress to pass a bailout package in the House of Representatives, and the Dow Jones industrial average taking a record 777 point nosedive after the bill’s collapse.

McCain would narrowly win Florida and Ohio, two states out of the big three up for grabs that both went for George W. Bush in the last two elections. But Obama would compensate for those losses by winning Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia – worth a combined 32 Electoral College votes, almost enough to offset the combined loss of Ohio and Florida’s 47 Electoral College votes – while retaining all of the other states John Kerry won in 2004.

It’s a pretty safe bet that one of these states will push Obama or McCain past the 270 threshold to win the White House. If I had to pick one, based on the 2006 elections, I’d choose Virginia. It was the Webb-Allen Senate race that in the end gave the Democrats control of the U.S. Senate, and it was also the last race to be decided.

Ohio would be very close again, and the political terrain might shift in Obama’s favor compared to 2004 because of Democratic gains in the state during 2006 and because of the focus on the economy, particularly in a manufacturing state like Ohio which has been hit hard by outsourcing and unemployment. It wouldn’t be enough right now to flip to the Obama side, but McCain and the Republicans would have to spend a lot of time and money defending it, because without Ohio it would be virtually impossible for McCain to win the race.

McCain’s best chance at picking up a Kerry swing state from 2004 at this point is New Hampshire. Given the strong libertarian and independent streak in their electorate, and the fact that McCain won two critical victories in their primary in 2000 and 2008, that it is the most Republican-leaning state in New England, and that it was one of only three states (along with Iowa and New Mexico) that flipped parties between 2000 and 2004, don’t be surprised if you see him there a few times between now and November.

One thing working against him is recent political trends. When the Democrats retook control of Congress in 2006, one of the geographic areas where they made a significant amount of gains was in New England, where several incumbent moderate Republicans in the House (Nancy Johnson, Charlie Bass, etc.) and the Senate (Lincoln Chafee) were ousted. Now, there is only one House Republican from New England: Rep. Christopher Shays of Connecticut, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is facing a tough re-election fight.

As I said in a previous post, unless John McCain or some outside event can fundamentally shake the dynamic of the race away from Obama’s favor, it will become increasingly difficult to stop his momentum and of perceptions of undecided voters from hardening. A lot can change in a day or even a few weeks, as we’ve seen during the month of September, but time is running out for the McCain campaign.

His best hopes are either that Obama does disastrously in the final two presidential debates, or that some enterprising reporter unearths an October surprise that will damage his candidacy that could push just enough swing voters in McCain’s direction. But given that no reporter, or any opposition researcher from the Hillary Clinton campaign for that matter, was able to find a silver bullet to stop the Obama juggernaut, this is not a strategy I would plan the final weeks of a presidential campaign around.