Posts Tagged ‘Harry Reid’

Harry Reid is calling Joe Lieberman in to have a little chat. Expect at a minimum for him to lose his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee, and for him to be ineligible for any leadership positions in the Democratic caucus.

This leaves Lieberman with the worst of both worlds. If he stays with the Democrats, he will be in the majority but won’t have any input in shaping the agenda someone of his seniority normally would. If he defects to the Republicans, he will be in the minority, where he will probably have even less influence, and in all likelihood would not even get vicechairman status on a Senate subcomittee.

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Before it gets too late, I want to note my predictions for the downballot races.

Senate:
The Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority. They need to a net gain of 9 seats tonight to get a 60-seat supermajority. These are the races which will ultimately determine the size of the new Democratic majority in January.

Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) v. Mark Begich (D)
Begich wins by 8-11 points.

Colorado: Bob Schaffer (R) v. Mark Udall (D)
Udall wins by 7-10 points.

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R) v. Jim Martin (D)
Chambliss wins by 2-5 points.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) v. Bruce Lunsford (D)
McConnell wins by 3-6 points.

Louisiana: John Kennedy (R) v. Mary Landrieu (D)
Landrieu wins by 6-9 points.

Maine: Susan Collins (R) v. Tom Allen (D)
Collins wins by 7-10 points.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) v. Al Franken (D)
Franken wins 2-5 points.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) v. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Wicker wins by 4-7 points.

New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) v. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Shaheen wins by 8-12 points.

New Mexico: Steve Pearce (R) v. Tom Udall (D)
Udall wins by 10-13 points.

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R) v. Kay Hagan (D)
Hagan wins by 4-7 points.

Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) v. Jeff Merkley (D)
Merkley wins by 4-7 points.

Virginia: Jim Gilmore (R) v. Mark Warner (D)
Warner wins by 24-27 points.

If my predictions are correct the Democrats will pick up 8 seats, leaving them at 59-41 in the Senate, one seat short of the supermajority. The GOP firewall in the South will hold, but if they lose McConnell or Chambliss the Dems hit 60.

House of Representatives:
The Democrats currently hold a 236-199 majority. Expect them to pick up between 25-30 more seats tonight. I also expect the Republicans to claim one significant Democratic scalp: John Murtha, largely due to his self-inflicted wounds when he said western Pennsylvania was racist.

Elections have consequences, and Joe Lieberman bet on the wrong horse.

***LIEBERMAN ALSO OUT: Bres reports that Reid hopes Sen. Lieberman will “voluntarily” leave as Homeland Security Committee chairman after energetically backing McCain. We’re told he’ll be booted if not.

Expect him to defect to the Republican caucus some time after the election or at the beginning of the next Congress.