Posts Tagged ‘National Security’

Meltdown

Posted: October 26, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Bush Administration, Foreign Policy, Guess Who Has a New Book to Promote, National Security, Nukes
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I recently finished reading “Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis” by former CNN correspondent Mike Chinoy. Before I go any further with this, I should note in the interest of full disclosure that Mike was a teacher of mine at USC, and that I transcribed several interviews and contributed some research for this book.

It’s an excellent read, although the nuances of nuclear proliferation policy may be a bit complicated for a person unfamiliar with the issues surrounding America’s complicated relationship with North Korea. Mike does a good job documenting some of the behind-the-scenes power struggles within the Bush administration. There’s enough duplicity and backstabbing going on to rival any reality TV show, only that there are real world consequences as a result.

The major characters in this book – secretaries of State Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, nonproliferation chief John Bolton, North Korea negotiator Christopher Hill, and others – come across as dedicated public servants regardless of their position on the ideological and diplomatic spectrum in handling the North Korea issue, even when they are at each others’ throats.

Mike also does a good job at analyzing the M.O. of the North Koreans, parsing through the public and private statements of government officials as well as the official reports from the North Korean news agency to put developments and events into context, and how these comments often foretold of positive or negative developments in the U.S.-North Korea relationship. It’s easy and tempting to try and dismiss the North Koreans for their behavior, and wonder about how accurate the caricature of Trey Parker and Matt Stone’s Kim Jong Il really is (I’ve been guilty of that), but they certainly do not come across this way in the book.

If there is such a thing as being able to figure out what makes North Korea and Dear Leader tick, Mike is probably pretty close to it. He once said to me words to the effect that Kim Jong Il was as rational as a person could be in an irrational environment. Some of the words and actions of the North Korean government do seem irrational, and even childish at times. Their nuclear test in October of 2006 was neither of these, but rather something akin to Glenn Close’s famous line in the movie Fatal Attraction: “I’m not gonna be ignored.”

There are no bombshells in this book like George Tenet’s infamous slam dunk comment, but Washington Post diplomatic correspondent Glenn Kessler reviewed Meltdown and has a far better understanding of the news value and significance of what Mike uncovered in the course of his reporting for this book.

Regardless of who wins the election next week, the next president will have to figure out how to continue dealing with North Korea and make sure that the relationship does not deteriorate the way it did during the past eight years.

Sarah Palin and SOFA

Posted: October 19, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Foreign Policy, National Security, Sarah Palin
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John McCain, Barack Obama and Joe Biden get calls from Bob Gates and Condoleezza Rice about the ongoing Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) being discussed with the Iraqi government because of their respective roles on the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Sarah Palin… not so much.

According to the State Department, Palin is a governor with no relevant jurisdiction or oversight of the State Department or Department of Defense, but as this briefing shows, some people aren’t going to be able to help but interpret it as a snub of the Republican vice presidential candidate. From Friday’s daily State Department briefing:

QUESTION: You called Senator Biden, you called McCain, you called —

MR. MCCORMACK: Chairman Biden, I guess I should have said.

QUESTION: Yeah. Did you also call Governor Palin?

MR. MCCORMACK: No, no. She – if you hadn’t noticed, she’s a governor, not a senator or congressman.

QUESTION: She’s a vice presidential candidate.

MR. MCCORMACK: Right.

QUESTION: She also has extensive foreign affairs experience. (Laughter.)

MR. MCCORMACK: Look, I explained to you the reasoning behind the phone calls.

QUESTION: Anything that has to do with Russia, you would have called her?

Regardless of the substantive issue of whether or not a governor has jurisdiction of foreign policy, as vice presidential candidate, she or any other candidate – regardless of gender or political affiliation – are entitled to get a briefing or courtesy call on this subject so they can be informed as candidates. If she is entitled to receive classified intelligence briefings from the DNI, I see no reason why she shouldn’t be filled in on SOFA.

Pakistan Considering IMF Bailout

Posted: October 18, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Bush Administration, Economy, Foreign Policy, National Security, Nukes
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If the daily campaign narrative weren’t dominated by silly stories to fight and win the daily spin war, this story would be getting a lot more attention.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — President Asif Ali Zardari returned from China late Friday without a commitment for hard cash needed to shore up Pakistan’s crumbling economy, leaving him with the politically unpopular prospect of having to ask the International Monetary Fund for help.

Pakistan was seeking the aid from China, an important ally, as it faces the possibility of defaulting on its current account payments. With the United States and other nations preoccupied with a financial crisis, and Saudi Arabia, another traditional ally, refusing to offer concessions on oil, China was seen as the last port of call before the I.M.F.

Accepting a rescue package from the I.M.F. would be seen as a humiliating step for Mr. Zardari’s government, which took office earlier this year. An I.M.F.-backed plan would require the government to cut spending and raise taxes, among other measures, which could hurt the poor, officials said.

The Bush administration is concerned that Pakistan’s economic meltdown will provide an opportunity for Islamic militants to capitalize on rising poverty and frustration.

The Pakistanis have not been shy in exploiting the terrorist threat as way of trying to win financial support, a senior official at the I.M.F. said. But because of the dire global financial situation, and the reluctance of donor nations to provide money without strict economic reforms by Pakistan, the terrorist argument has not been fully persuasive, he said.

“A selling point to us even has been, if the economy really collapses this is going to mean civil strife, and strikes, and put the war on terror in jeopardy,” said the official, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the news media. “They are saying, ‘We are a strategic country, the world needs to come to our aid.’ ”

People focus too much on the terrorist argument, which although serious, pales in comparison to the nuclear weapons issue. It may be politically unpopular to go to the IMF but Pakistan realistically has no good options at this point. Normally Washington would probably bail them out but given the domestic economic problems, they can’t do that now without stirring a huge domestic political argument on the eve of a presidential election that the incumbent party is on course to lose.

If the Pakistani state collapses because of the economic situation, it will probably be the next president’s first foreign policy crisis. And at or near the top of that crisis will be what to do about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. They are under the control of the military, which is one of the most powerful political constituencies in the country. But if their paychecks stop coming in, my guess is all bets are off.

Powell Watch

Posted: October 18, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Foreign Policy, John McCain, National Security
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All eyes in Washington and the political world will be on Meet the Press this Sunday morning, more so than usual.

Colin Powell, former secretary of state, and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, will be a guest on Meet The Press this Sunday, fueling increased speculation that he will finally make an endorsement in the 2008 race, with only a couple weeks until the election.

Powell, despite being a Republican, has been neutral so far this cycle, fomenting rumors in certain political circles that he may endorse Sen. Barack Obama.

” It’s going to make a lot of news, and certainly be personally embarrassing for McCain,” a McCain official said to Politico’s Mike Allen, on a possible Powell endorsement of Obama. “It comes at a time when we need momentum, and it would create momentum against us.”

Tom DeFrank and Howard Fineman talked to several anonymous Powell sources. DeFrank’s sources were much more assertive in their thinking that Powell would get behind Obama, but Fineman got the same impression from his contacts as well. For all anyone knows, they could be talking to the same people.

If Powell does get behind Obama, it will dominate media cycles for at least two or three days, and will be a stunning symbolic rebuke of the Republican party and its presidential candidate, a man Powell considers a friend to whom he gave $2,300 in August of 2007 when many thought his campaign was finished.

The Things He Carried

Posted: October 16, 2008 in National Security
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The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg has this interesting article on the things he was able to sneak past airport security in the post-9/11 world. I don’t know whether I should even be surprised when I read stories like this anymore.

$100 Billion Bailout for Pakistan

Posted: October 8, 2008 in Economy, Foreign Policy, National Security, Nukes
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Pakistan, which has one of the largest military forces in the world, is a declared nuclear power, and has Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, and the Taliban running around in their backyard is on the verge of bankruptcy, unless the international community provides the cash to get them out of this mess.

This will make me sleep better at night.

Federal Judge Orders 17 to be Released from Guantanamo

Posted: October 7, 2008 in Foreign Policy, National Security
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McClatchy:

WASHINGTON — In a dramatic setback for the Bush administration, a federal judge ordered the U.S. government Tuesday to immediately transfer to the U.S. and release 17 Chinese-born Muslims detained for seven years at Guantanamo.

Reading his decision from the bench, Judge Ricardo Urbina declared the continued detention of the group from the ethnic Uighur minority to be “unlawful” and ordered the government to transfer the detainees to the U.S. by Friday.

The decision marked the first time a court has ordered the release of Guantanamo detainees into the U.S.

First, this raises a major issue as to what is going to happen to these detainees when they get transferred to the United States. They have two options: Return them to their native China, OR find a third country willing to grant them asylum. Based on the predicament facing the last group of Uighurs released from Guantanamo, I have a feeling that this group will be dealt with the same way.

Second, this is another legal defeat for the administration. After reading several books about the Bush Administration, specifically Barton Gellman’s Angler and Charlie Savage’s Takeover, one common theme keeps popping up: the expansion of executive power at the expense of the other branches of American government.

After two Supreme Court cases and now this decision, the administration is finally learning the costs of overreach. These precedents are now on the books and effectively bind future administrations to abide by them in the future.

North Korea and the Axis of Oil

Posted: October 4, 2008 in Foreign Policy, National Security, Nukes
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Interesting comments from CIA Director Michael Hayden during an interview with Fox News on what he sees as the potential national security threats to the next administration. The key graphs in the article:

While the increasingly fragile status of impoverished North Korea renders it a special threat, the flood of petrodollars coming from the so-called “Axis of Oil” — Iran, Venezuela and Russia — poses another threat to American security.

Hayden said oil prices, which are still hovering around $100 per barrel, have emboldened these oil-rich nations. “Oil, at its current price … gives the Russian state a degree of influence and power that it would have not otherwise had,” he said.

Russia’s invasion of Georgian territory in August and Iran’s continued work on acquiring nuclear weapons only compound the threat.

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