Arizona Up for Grabs

Posted: October 29, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCain
Tags: , , , ,

The bad news just keeps coming for the McCain campaign.

Sen. John McCain’s once-comfortable lead in Arizona has all but evaporated, according to a new poll that has the underdog Republican presidential candidate struggling in his own backyard.

With less than a week until Election Day, McCain is leading his Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, by 2 points, 46 to 44, down from a 7-point lead a month ago and a double-digit lead this summer, according to a poll from Arizona State University.

Factor in the 3-percentage point margin of error, and a race that was once a nearly sure thing for McCain is now a toss-up, pollsters say.

As Al Gore found out eight years ago, only three presidents have ever been elected without carrying their home states. Whether Obama will buy advertising time in the state or add it to his campaign itinerary is unclear at this point, but he might send his wife or some A-list surrogates to headline an event or two there during the final days. It’s not the big gamble like four years ago when Dick Cheney went to Hawaii during the last week of the campaign. But if McCain has to spend money and time playing defense in Arizona this late in the game, he’s toast.

  1. Polls is still like adding in arithmetic, just leave out some numbers and you get a wrong answer. As simple as that,

    Obama has a lot of young fans, and the fact is, they just don’t show up to vote. Sure, when they’re asked, they say they’re going to vote, but when presented with the choice of getting off the couch and turning off MTV or going to vote, they just might procrastinate their way to a McCain victory.

    Something is definitely goofy with the polls. They all show Obama up but the spread is all over the place. If Obama thought he had PA in the bag, he wouldn’t be spending time there, instead he’d be trying to pick off some states probably out of reach, but worth a shot in order to run up the popular vote tally for a mandate.I think the internals in PA have been decreasing weekly for Obama. I posted about an internal Obama poll earlier this month (and a week before the blogosphere picked it up):

    Internal polling is far more elaborate and expensive. A rag like Newsweek, apart from being biased, is not interested in paying good money to get a decent polling sample. While other rags like the CNN just lie.. MSNBC, the NY Times, etc. also do totally fabricate the news. They are also immorally fabricating the polls to maliciously suppress the Republican, Christian vote.

    The Post and ABC conduct interviews with a random selection of those who have only cellular phone service alongside a traditional random sample of those with residential phone service. One recent criticism of current polling has been that it does not accurately capture the sentiments of those who primarily use cellphones.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s