Archive for October, 2008
According to a press release from Secretary of State Robin Carnahan:
76 – The projected voter turnout rate.
4.2 million – The record number of registered voters in the state.
3.2 million – The number of ballots that will be cast on Election Day, if the 76 percent figure holds.
340,000 – The number of first-time voters in this election.
150,000 – The number of registered 18-24-year-olds who are first-time voters, more than double any other age group.
Missouri could be an extremely close state. President Bush won it by about 199,000 votes in 2004, but given the expected record numbers of African American voters, and that the young voters have been overwhelmingly in favor of Barack Obama, those two voting blocs could potentially tip the state in his favor. Keep this in mind as the returns come in on Tuesday night.
Circular Firing Squad
Posted: October 28, 2008 in 2008 Elections, John McCain, October Surprise, Sarah PalinTags: 2008 Elections, John McCain, October Surprise, Sarah Palin
This time, it’s the McCain campaign vs. the RNC over the Palin wardrobe shopping spree. The story is so politically toxic, nobody wants to claim responsibility.
Update: This is absolutely stunning. Sen. John Ensign, the man responsible for getting Republican candidates elected to the U.S. Senate, is saying it’s a “fair possibility” that Democrats will get a 60-seat supermajority and points the finger at John McCain, saying during an MSNBC interview that, “There’s no question the top of the ticket is affecting our Senate races and it’s making it a lot more difficult.”
Guilty 7x
Posted: October 28, 2008 in 2008 Elections, John McCain, October Surprise, SenateTags: 2008 Elections, October Surprise, Senate, Ted Stevens
The feds got a clean sweep in their case against Sen. Ted Stevens, with the jury returning guilty verdicts on all seven counts.
Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted today of lying on financial disclosure forms to hide tens of thousands of dollars in gifts and renovations to his Alaska home that were financed mostly by a powerful business executive and his oil services company.
The verdict was announced just after 4 p.m. in a packed courtroom in U.S. District Court in Washington. Stevens (R) sat quietly as the jury foreman said the panel had reached a unanimous decision and found Stevens guilty on all seven counts of filing false financial disclosure forms.
Jurors, who re-started their deliberations at 9:30 a.m. today when a juror was replaced by an alternate, were somber as they walked into the courtroom to deliver the verdict and did not look at Stevens. No sentencing date has been set, and Stevens’s attorneys are expected to file motions seeking to have the verdict set aside.
Despite the guilty verdict, Stevens remains on the ballot in Alaska, where he is locked in a tight race with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.
If he can pull off an upset victory, Stevens could remain in the Senate for months, if not longer, if he chose to appeal the verdict. Tradition allows him to exhaust his appeals before the ethics committee begins expulsion hearings, according to the Historical Office of the Senate.
Talking Points Memo has been all over this story since the beginning and they are a good source to explain what this mess is and how Stevens got himself into it.
Nationally, the implications are pretty simple. Stevens was in a tough reelection race to begin with after the indictment. Now that he’s been convicted a week before Election Day, the GOP can’t put a replacement on the ticket and odds are he is going to lose. If he loses, that puts the Democrats one seat closer to the 60-seat supermajority. However, sentencing is not until January of next year and a lot can happen in 3 months.
Here’s a remote scenario for you (hat tip to kos) by which Republicans might still be able to hang on to his Senate seat: If Stevens manages to win re-election, McCain loses next week, and Stevens is expelled or resigns from the Senate after exhausting the appeals process, Sarah Palin can pick a replacement to fill out his term and keep the seat in Republican hands. Correction: According to the New York Times, Palin would most likely call a special election to find someone to replace Stevens. If this happens, I think it would give the Republicans a better shot of retaining the seat.
Unlikely, but possible.
Update: According to this analysis by The Hill, Ted Stevens was his own worst enemy on the witness stand.
Update II: Now that he’s a convicted felon, Stevens can’t vote for himself next week. (Hat tip to kos)
Update III: The New York Times mentions another intriguing possibility for Stevens – getting a presidential pardon or a commutation of his sentence before George W. Bush leaves office in January.
Update IV: The Hill reports that Stevens will be allowed to vote next week.
Circular Firing Squad
Posted: October 27, 2008 in 2008 Elections, John McCain, Sarah PalinTags: 2008 Elections, Is It 2012 Yet?, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin
According to the conservative American Spectator, former aides to Mitt Romney now working for the McCain campaign are the ones who are twisting the knife in Sarah Palin during the recent reports published by CNN, Politico, and other news organizations.
Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers, some of whom are currently working for Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin‘s bid for the White House, have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election. “Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won’t be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,” says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin. “The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney. He’s in charge on November 5th.”
Romney has kept a low profile nationally since being denied the vice presidential nomination. He is currently traveling for the National Republican Congressional Committee in support of some House members, and has attended events for a handful of other House members who have sought his support, but he has traveled little for the McCain-Palin ticket. “He said the only time he’d travel for us is if we assured him that national cameras would be there,” says a McCain campaign communications aide. “He’s traveled to Nevada and a couple other states for us. That’s about it.”
…
Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a “diva” and was going off message intentionally. The former and current Romney supporters further are pushing Romney supporters for key Republican jobs, including head of the Republican National Committee.
This certainly makes sense, as Romney’s people would have the means and the motive to be dumping on McCain and Palin. McCain passed on Romney as his VP nominee, and the two men did not like each other very much during the Republican primary. Romney was merciless in tying McCain to Republican boogeymen Russ Feingold and Ted Kennedy for his legislative work with them during the primary season. Now Romney’s people have an opportunity for payback and then some – they weaken Palin before she can have the opportunity to become the party frontrunner for 2012 and put their guy in front.
McCain Guarantees Victory
Posted: October 26, 2008 in 2008 Elections, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, John McCain
Does he know something the rest of us don’t?
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he can “guarantee” a win on Nov. 4 in a squeaker victory that won’t be clear until late that night.
McCain spoke amid signs of a tightening race, and reports of renewed determination among his staff, which is badly outgunned in both money and manpower.
“I guarantee you that two weeks from now, you will see this has been a very close race, and I believe that I’m going to win it,” McCain told interim “Meet” moderator Tom Brokaw. “We’re going to do well in this campaign, my friend. We’re going to win it, and it’s going to be tight, and we’re going to be up late.”
McCain was down just 5 points in the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released Sunday, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leading by 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the daily tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points.
Icepicks and Nukes 