Archive for November, 2008

Before it gets too late, I want to note my predictions for the downballot races.

Senate:
The Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority. They need to a net gain of 9 seats tonight to get a 60-seat supermajority. These are the races which will ultimately determine the size of the new Democratic majority in January.

Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) v. Mark Begich (D)
Begich wins by 8-11 points.

Colorado: Bob Schaffer (R) v. Mark Udall (D)
Udall wins by 7-10 points.

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R) v. Jim Martin (D)
Chambliss wins by 2-5 points.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) v. Bruce Lunsford (D)
McConnell wins by 3-6 points.

Louisiana: John Kennedy (R) v. Mary Landrieu (D)
Landrieu wins by 6-9 points.

Maine: Susan Collins (R) v. Tom Allen (D)
Collins wins by 7-10 points.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) v. Al Franken (D)
Franken wins 2-5 points.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) v. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Wicker wins by 4-7 points.

New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) v. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Shaheen wins by 8-12 points.

New Mexico: Steve Pearce (R) v. Tom Udall (D)
Udall wins by 10-13 points.

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R) v. Kay Hagan (D)
Hagan wins by 4-7 points.

Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) v. Jeff Merkley (D)
Merkley wins by 4-7 points.

Virginia: Jim Gilmore (R) v. Mark Warner (D)
Warner wins by 24-27 points.

If my predictions are correct the Democrats will pick up 8 seats, leaving them at 59-41 in the Senate, one seat short of the supermajority. The GOP firewall in the South will hold, but if they lose McConnell or Chambliss the Dems hit 60.

House of Representatives:
The Democrats currently hold a 236-199 majority. Expect them to pick up between 25-30 more seats tonight. I also expect the Republicans to claim one significant Democratic scalp: John Murtha, largely due to his self-inflicted wounds when he said western Pennsylvania was racist.

From the towns of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location, New Hampshire (with a combined population of 115), traditionally the first towns to vote on Election Day when the polls open at midnight.

Dixville Notch
McCain – 6
Obama – 15
Nader – 0

Hart’s Location
McCain – 10
Obama – 17
Nader – 0
Paul – 2

Thus begins today’s great exercise in democracy.

Update: According to Josh Marshall, this is the second time a Democratic candidate has won Dixville Notch since the midnight voting tradition began in 1948. The first was Hubert Humphrey in 1968.

Not a good outlook for McCain. Never in a million years did I think my projections would be more conservative than Karl Rove’s.

I don’t wanna be sedated.

These should keep you busy watching the returns come in tomorrow.

Five Thirty Eight
CNN Political Ticker
Daily Kos
Huffington Post
Marc Ambinder
Politico
Talking Points Memo
The Caucus
The Page

I and many of my friends and colleagues in the press been watching this campaign for two years and it all comes down to tomorrow. Amazing how it all went by so fast. Take some time to relax, get some rest, and savor the moment. Tomorrow is going to be a long day.

“In a globalized world, America’s president can shape lives worldwide. He is our president, too.”
Constanze Stelzenmüller, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund

Earlier, I posted a link to Politico’s list of the biggest gaffes of the campaign, while adding my own to the list. TIME Magazine has put together a much more thorough version of that list, which is well worth reading.

I had forgotten so many of these gaffes, and how they dominated the campaign cycle at one point or another. My revised list of big gaffes, based on political fallout or humor:

John McCain’s “Fundamentals of our economy” comment
Hillary Clinton ducking sniper fire in Bosnia
Phil Gramm’s “Nation of whiners” comment
Barack Obama’s 57 states comment
Mark Penn’s Colombian deal
Sarah Palin’s interview with Katie Couric
Barack Obama’s “Bitter” comment
Sarah Palin’s wardrobe
Joe Biden’s international test
Sarah Palin’s prank call
Mitt Romney: “Who Let the Dogs Out”
Barack Obama’s “spread the wealth” comment

Newsweek has a look at what went on behind the scenes before and after Palin got the infamous phone call.

The most shocking thing to me was that neither the campaign’s senior leadership (Steve Schmidt, Mark Salter, Rick Davis, et. al.) nor the candidate himself was brought into the loop when the preliminary calls came in. Given how carefully stage-managed Palin’s rollout was, especially when she was meeting foreign heads of state at the United Nations several weeks ago, I would have guessed that a call from the French president would have been run up the flagpole immediately. But as an unidentified senior McCain aide said, it should have raised red flags immediately.

According to one participant, who declined to be named, aides went back and forth venting their frustration. “Does anyone not think it’s strange that the French president would want to talk to a candidate in the final 72 hours of the campaign,” one senior McCain aide demanded, noting that the White House and the National Security Council would likely be involved in any such phone calls. “It’s appalling.” Bigger picture, the episode provides a glimpse at what have been increased tensions between the McCain plane and the Palin plane in the final weeks of the campaign. Aides have pushed back in recent days against stories that all is not well between the two camps, but it appears that may not be exactly true.

As MSNBC political analyst Lawrence O’Donnell pointed out, after taking into account the $150,000 shopping spree and now the prank call on top of that, Palin may well have the worst campaign staff in history.

Every once in a while, I come across a story that is so extraordinary and breathtaking in how people individually or collectively manage to create their own realities, despite what historical evidence shows to be true.

(CNN) — A state-run Chinese newspaper expressed relief Monday that senior Japanese officials had dismissed the country’s air force chief after he denied Japan’s aggression before and during World War II.

Gen. Toshio Tamogami lost his job as chief of staff for Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force, the Ministry of Defense said, after saying in an essay that “it is certainly a false accusation to say that our country was an aggressor nation.”

Japanese troops invaded China in 1937 and were widely accused of gross human rights abuses, including raping tens of thousands of girls and women and killing several hundred thousand others in what has come to be called “The Rape of Nanking.” Imperial Japan also invaded several other Asian nations, leading to the death and misery for an untold number.

Two former Japanese prime ministers have apologized for Japanese aggression before and during World War II. Yet China has long accused of elements within Japan of trying to whitewash the Japanese atrocities committed before and during World War II.

“The denial of the aggression history by Toshio Tamogami comes in as an element of disharmony,” the state-run China Daily said a commentary Monday. “Yet, as long as the Japanese government has a right attitude to this question, the smooth development of ties between the two neighbors will not be derailed by such discordant notes.”

Tamogami’s essay, published late last week, also stirred controversy in South Korea.

Japan controlled Korea from 1910 to 1945. Its military is accused of forcing roughly 200,000 women, mainly from Korea and China, to serve as sex slaves — they were known euphemistically as “comfort women” — for soldiers in the Imperial Army.

I did a story related to this, about a series of movies being produced about the Japanese occupation of Nanking, when I was working in Hong Kong. What struck me most was how raw the emotions were in both countries 70 years later. The Chinese have their own issues with revisionist history, but the factual merits of the argument are clearly on their side when it comes to Nanking.

I don’t know what is more stunning – a Japanese senior military official denying his country’s role as aggressor during the war, or that somebody gave his historical analysis enough credibility to award it first prize in an essay competition called “True Perspective of Modern and Contemporary History.”

Palin’s not a fan of the press.

In a conservative radio interview that aired in Washington, D.C. Friday morning, Republican vice presidential nominee Gov. Sarah Palin said she fears her First Amendment rights may be threatened by “attacks” from reporters who suggest she is engaging in a negative campaign against Barack Obama.

Palin told WMAL-AM that her criticism of Obama’s associations, like those with 1960s radical Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, should not be considered negative attacks. Rather, for reporters or columnists to suggest that it is going negative may constitute an attack that threatens a candidate’s free speech rights under the Constitution, Palin said.

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

But she may want to brush up on constitutional law first.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Politico compiles the best of the 2008 cycle. They focused on the two presidential nominees, but I would expand the list to include some of the other characters we’ve seen in the 2008 race.

ONE-LINERS
Joe Biden hits Rudy Giuliani: “A noun, a verb and 9/11”
Sarah Palin on the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull.
Bob Casey at the DNC: “That’s not a maverick, that’s a sidekick.”
Mike Huckabee: “Jesus was too smart to ever run for public office.”
John McCain on following Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell.

GAFFES
Sarah Palin’s entire interview with Katie Couric
Hillary Clinton invoking the assassination of Bobby Kennedy during the primaries
Barack Obama’s “bitter” comments at a fundraiser
Carly Fiorina saying John McCain and Sarah Palin couldn’t run Hewlett Packard
John McCain: “Bomb-bomb-bomb, bomb-bomb Iran”