Archive for the ‘Barack Obama’ Category
The Tell
Posted: October 28, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCain
Not Over Yet
Posted: October 27, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCain, Pennsylvania, Swing States
Nate Silver has this op-ed in the New York Post on how McCain could win the election without Pennsylvania. The chances of McCain actually pulling it off according to him are slim – 5 percent. But it’s a scenario worth keeping in mind on Election Night because stranger things have happened.
Counting Your Eggs Before They’re Hatched
Posted: October 26, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Beltway DramaTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Beltway Drama
According to Steve Clemons, there is a rumor the Obama campaign will announce his cabinet on November 7 – three days after the election. The other rumor is that John Kerry and Bill Richardson are frontrunners to be Secretary of State.
While every campaign has a short list of candidates for the cabinet and other key political appointments, I think it is extremely foolish for the Obama campaign to be so presumptuous to be telegraphing a move like this. Yes, they are in the driver’s seat right now with just over a week to go before the election, but a lot can happen or change in one day, let alone eight.
The McCain campaign seized on the erroneous story that John Podesta had already written Obama’s inaugural address. If this is true, expect a similar reaction.
McCain Adviser Endorses Obama
Posted: October 24, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCain
Crossover Endorsements
Posted: October 24, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, Arne Carlson, Barack Obama, Colin Powell, Joe Lieberman, John McCain, Scott McClellan, Senate, William Weld
Obama picks up a trifecta of GOP endorsements in the aftermath of getting the Colin Powell seal of approval:
Former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan
Former governor of Massachusetts William Weld
Former governor of Minnesota Arne Carlson
The only big name Democrat to endorse McCain so far is Joe Lieberman. What makes him more significant than any of the Republicans who crossed over for Obama is that he is still a serving U.S. senator, currently a member of the Democratic caucus. If McCain wins the White House, there is speculation that McCain would ask Lieberman to serve in his cabinet – possibly as Secretary of Defense or State – which would open up his seat in the Senate, which would be filled at the discretion of the Republican governor of Connecticut Jodi Rell.
Obama’s Website Accepts More Fake Donations than McCain’s
Posted: October 24, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Follow the Money, John McCain
Nothing to See Here People, Move Along…
Posted: October 24, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John McCain, October Surprise, Sarah PalinTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John McCain, October Surprise, Sarah Palin
Ken Vogel has this interesting story on what records or other relevant information the four major candidates (McCain, Obama, Palin and Biden) are not releasing to the public.
The First Timers
Posted: October 22, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCain
George Stephanopoulos points out this interesting finding from the latest ABC/Washington Post poll:
But four years ago, first time voters backed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., over President George W. Bush 53 to 46 percent — a 7 points advantage for the Democratic nominee. In 2008 first time voters favor Obama over McCain 73 – 26 — a whopping 47 percentage point lead.
This will be a key demographic to watch out for on Election Night as the polls come in, especially if it comes down to the wire at the end in a few key swing states like Colorado or Missouri.
Tories for Obama
Posted: October 21, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack ObamaTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama
The conservative mayor of London pens an endorsement of Barack Obama. Not that it will sway much votes over on the other side of the pond, but it is rare for a foreign politician to inject himself into the American political process, especially in rebuking the party whose views are often aligned with those of his own.
The money quote (hat tip to Andrew Sullivan):
The legacy of George Bush may take years, if not decades, to determine.
But at present he seems to have pulled off an astonishing double whammy.
However well-intentioned it was, the catastrophic and unpopular intervention in Iraq has served in some parts of the world to discredit the very idea of western democracy.
The recent collapse of the banking system, and the humiliating resort to semi-socialist solutions, has done a great deal to discredit – in some people’s eyes – the idea of free-market capitalism.
Democracy and capitalism are the two great pillars of the American idea.
To have rocked one of those pillars may be regarded as a misfortune.
To have damaged the reputation of both, at home and abroad, is a pretty stunning achievement for an American president.
The Last Gasps of Campaign Public Financing
Posted: October 20, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Follow the Money, John McCain
First, public finance in the general election is dead, dead, dead. Any nominee from now on can safely opt out because the Internet makes it for the public to massively participate. If we had not had a nominee with such misguided instincts on campaign finance reform, Republicans probably would have figured this out this time. McCain raised $47 million in August, or 71% of Obama’s total, and he raised $10 million in 2 days because of Sarah Palin. Had this trend continued into September, McCain would have raised over $100 million for the month. By the time the McCain campaign figured out it was possible to excite the base, it was too late.
This is true, because Obama has unleashed the full potential of a small Internet-based donor operation that (ironically) was first pioneered by John McCain back in 2000 and later on in a much more dramatic way by Howard Dean in 2004. This essentially narrows the playing field for presidential candidates. You either have to be able to connect with voters in a way that they will give money and time an deffort, come hell or high water (i.e. Dean and Obama), or you have to be ridiculously wealthy enough that you can substantially finance your own campaign (i.e. Mitt Romney and Ross Perot).
And Ruffini smartly asks the next question. How do you spend $150 million?
Second, what does Obama do with the extra money? A three-to-one ad ratio in a given state is worth about a point in the polls. But that’s in states with at least a decent baseline of Republican advertising. What’s it worth in states where McCain can’t advertise at all, like North Dakota or Georgia? 3 or 4 points? Does Obama move into states at the fringes of the target map to 1) heighten the sense of panic in the GOP? and 2) go for 400 EVs? Can he legally bail out the committees to go for 270 in the House and 60 in the Senate?
Either way, this is going to be the political equivalent of Sherman’s March.
Icepicks and Nukes 