MSNBC is reporting that Rahm Emanuel has been offered the White House Chief of Staff job and is currently “agonizing” over the decision.
726 Days
Posted: November 4, 2008 in 2006 Elections, 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCainTags: 2006 Elections, 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Election Day, Election Night, John McCain, Tom Vilsack
According to First Read, that’s how long it’s been since Iowa governor Tom Vilsack kicked off the 2008 campaign season when he filed paperwork to start his presidential bid on November 9, 2006, just days after the Democrats won control of Congress.
For those of you who are math junkies, that is the equivalent of five days shy of a full two years; 17,424 hours; 1,045,440 minutes; and 62,726,400 seconds.
Congressional Races Outlook
Posted: November 4, 2008 in 2008 Elections, House of Representatives, SenateTags: 2008 Elections, Al Franken, Bob Schaffer, Bruce Lunsford, Chris Van Hollen, Chuck Schumer, DCCC, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, DSCC, Elizabeth Dole, Gordon Smith, Harry Reid, House of Representatives, Jeanne Shaheen, Jeff Merkley, Jim Gilmore, Jim Martin, John Boehner, John Ensign, John Kennedy, John Sununu, Kay Hagan, Mark Begich, Mark Udall, Mark Warner, Mary Landrieu, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, National Republican Congressional Committee, National Republican Senatorial Committee, Norm Coleman, NRCC, NRSC, Roger Wicker, Ronnie Musgrove, Saxby Chambliss, Senate, Steve Pearce, Susan Collins, Ted Stevens, Tom Allen, Tom Cole, Tom Udall
Before it gets too late, I want to note my predictions for the downballot races.
Senate:
The Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority. They need to a net gain of 9 seats tonight to get a 60-seat supermajority. These are the races which will ultimately determine the size of the new Democratic majority in January.
Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) v. Mark Begich (D)
Begich wins by 8-11 points.
Colorado: Bob Schaffer (R) v. Mark Udall (D)
Udall wins by 7-10 points.
Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R) v. Jim Martin (D)
Chambliss wins by 2-5 points.
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) v. Bruce Lunsford (D)
McConnell wins by 3-6 points.
Louisiana: John Kennedy (R) v. Mary Landrieu (D)
Landrieu wins by 6-9 points.
Maine: Susan Collins (R) v. Tom Allen (D)
Collins wins by 7-10 points.
Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) v. Al Franken (D)
Franken wins 2-5 points.
Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) v. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Wicker wins by 4-7 points.
New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) v. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Shaheen wins by 8-12 points.
New Mexico: Steve Pearce (R) v. Tom Udall (D)
Udall wins by 10-13 points.
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R) v. Kay Hagan (D)
Hagan wins by 4-7 points.
Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) v. Jeff Merkley (D)
Merkley wins by 4-7 points.
Virginia: Jim Gilmore (R) v. Mark Warner (D)
Warner wins by 24-27 points.
If my predictions are correct the Democrats will pick up 8 seats, leaving them at 59-41 in the Senate, one seat short of the supermajority. The GOP firewall in the South will hold, but if they lose McConnell or Chambliss the Dems hit 60.
House of Representatives:
The Democrats currently hold a 236-199 majority. Expect them to pick up between 25-30 more seats tonight. I also expect the Republicans to claim one significant Democratic scalp: John Murtha, largely due to his self-inflicted wounds when he said western Pennsylvania was racist.
Rove’s Final Map
Posted: November 4, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, John McCain, Media, Talking HeadsTags: 2008 Elections, Barack Obama, Election Day, Election Night, John McCain, Karl Rove, Media, Swing States, Talking Heads
Not a good outlook for McCain. Never in a million years did I think my projections would be more conservative than Karl Rove’s.
Palin Prank Call Aftermath
Posted: November 3, 2008 in 2008 Elections, John McCain, Sarah PalinTags: 2008 Elections, John McCain, Sarah Palin
Newsweek has a look at what went on behind the scenes before and after Palin got the infamous phone call.
The most shocking thing to me was that neither the campaign’s senior leadership (Steve Schmidt, Mark Salter, Rick Davis, et. al.) nor the candidate himself was brought into the loop when the preliminary calls came in. Given how carefully stage-managed Palin’s rollout was, especially when she was meeting foreign heads of state at the United Nations several weeks ago, I would have guessed that a call from the French president would have been run up the flagpole immediately. But as an unidentified senior McCain aide said, it should have raised red flags immediately.
According to one participant, who declined to be named, aides went back and forth venting their frustration. “Does anyone not think it’s strange that the French president would want to talk to a candidate in the final 72 hours of the campaign,” one senior McCain aide demanded, noting that the White House and the National Security Council would likely be involved in any such phone calls. “It’s appalling.” Bigger picture, the episode provides a glimpse at what have been increased tensions between the McCain plane and the Palin plane in the final weeks of the campaign. Aides have pushed back in recent days against stories that all is not well between the two camps, but it appears that may not be exactly true.
As MSNBC political analyst Lawrence O’Donnell pointed out, after taking into account the $150,000 shopping spree and now the prank call on top of that, Palin may well have the worst campaign staff in history.
Icepicks and Nukes 