Posts Tagged ‘2008 Elections’

Patrick Ruffini:

First, public finance in the general election is dead, dead, dead. Any nominee from now on can safely opt out because the Internet makes it for the public to massively participate. If we had not had a nominee with such misguided instincts on campaign finance reform, Republicans probably would have figured this out this time. McCain raised $47 million in August, or 71% of Obama’s total, and he raised $10 million in 2 days because of Sarah Palin. Had this trend continued into September, McCain would have raised over $100 million for the month. By the time the McCain campaign figured out it was possible to excite the base, it was too late.

This is true, because Obama has unleashed the full potential of a small Internet-based donor operation that (ironically) was first pioneered by John McCain back in 2000 and later on in a much more dramatic way by Howard Dean in 2004. This essentially narrows the playing field for presidential candidates. You either have to be able to connect with voters in a way that they will give money and time an deffort, come hell or high water (i.e. Dean and Obama), or you have to be ridiculously wealthy enough that you can substantially finance your own campaign (i.e. Mitt Romney and Ross Perot).

And Ruffini smartly asks the next question. How do you spend $150 million?

Second, what does Obama do with the extra money? A three-to-one ad ratio in a given state is worth about a point in the polls. But that’s in states with at least a decent baseline of Republican advertising. What’s it worth in states where McCain can’t advertise at all, like North Dakota or Georgia? 3 or 4 points? Does Obama move into states at the fringes of the target map to 1) heighten the sense of panic in the GOP? and 2) go for 400 EVs? Can he legally bail out the committees to go for 270 in the House and 60 in the Senate?

Either way, this is going to be the political equivalent of Sherman’s March.

ABC’s Jake Tapper has a good recap of the highlights of Powell’s interview on Meet the Press.

As I said before – this will dominate the news cycle for one or two days. Pundits in the blogosphere and the major media will be aflutter talking about this. Obama clearly controlled the narrative yesterday with the carefully timed announcement of his $150 million fundraising figure and the nod from Powell.

McCain’s problem is that he is running out of time. He has about two weeks to go and not many ways to change or control the media narrative before Election Day. Barring a drastic change in the underlying fundamental dynamic of this election (which happened when the financial crisis hit on September 15), the political environment will continue to favor Obama.

Update: Former McCain adviser Mike Murphy weighs in at TIME’s Swampland Blog. His analysis: “Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama today is a real sledgehammer blow to the already staggering McCain campaign.” The rest of it is not pretty.

“The most poorly run presidential campaign of the last 25 years. It’s truly Dukakis-like.”
An unidentified Republican strategist advising the McCain campaign.

Tough Crowd

Posted: October 19, 2008 in 2008 Elections, Media
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Jonathan Martin has this note about the differing treatments McCain crowds give to CNN’s Ed Henry and Fox’s Carl Cameron.

Carl Cameron and Ed Henry are both top-flight reporters.

But they work for networks which are viewed in, shall we say, differing lights by Republican activists.

So when Fox’s Cameron and CNN’s Henry took to opposing risers today at a McCain rally in Woodbridge, Virginia, their receptions were starkly different.

“CNN sucks!,” yelled one voter at Henry. “Communists go home,” shouted another”

At one point, Henry was hit with a flying pack of chewing gum.

Toward the end of McCain’s speech — which a handful of especially passionate activists ignored to hurl insults at Henry and other reporters — a chant went up: “We want Fox, we want Fox.”

I know Ed. He’s a consummate professional who does his job come hell or high water, but this has got to make it very difficult.

Obama’s fundraising numbers for September are out, and they are absolutely jaw-dropping.

Obama’s September fundraising explains why he’s been able to outspend John McCain so widely: He raised over $150 million in September alone, adding 632,000 new donors.

The average donation for the month was less than $100. The average contribution for the campaign is $86, Obama aide Dan Pfeiffer said in an email.

They’ve been raising, presumably at the same torrid pace, for the last 19 days, though the announcement — held nearly as long as possible — may make it a bit more of a challenge to ask for more. Obama’s total is almost twice what McCain is permitted to spend between the convention and election day.

Fake Virginia

Posted: October 19, 2008 in 2008 Elections
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McCain is pretty much guaranteed to lose Northern Virginia now.

Update: Jonathan Martin notes that Northern Virginia is home to one third of the voters in the state.

John McCain, Barack Obama and Joe Biden get calls from Bob Gates and Condoleezza Rice about the ongoing Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) being discussed with the Iraqi government because of their respective roles on the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Sarah Palin… not so much.

According to the State Department, Palin is a governor with no relevant jurisdiction or oversight of the State Department or Department of Defense, but as this briefing shows, some people aren’t going to be able to help but interpret it as a snub of the Republican vice presidential candidate. From Friday’s daily State Department briefing:

QUESTION: You called Senator Biden, you called McCain, you called —

MR. MCCORMACK: Chairman Biden, I guess I should have said.

QUESTION: Yeah. Did you also call Governor Palin?

MR. MCCORMACK: No, no. She – if you hadn’t noticed, she’s a governor, not a senator or congressman.

QUESTION: She’s a vice presidential candidate.

MR. MCCORMACK: Right.

QUESTION: She also has extensive foreign affairs experience. (Laughter.)

MR. MCCORMACK: Look, I explained to you the reasoning behind the phone calls.

QUESTION: Anything that has to do with Russia, you would have called her?

Regardless of the substantive issue of whether or not a governor has jurisdiction of foreign policy, as vice presidential candidate, she or any other candidate – regardless of gender or political affiliation – are entitled to get a briefing or courtesy call on this subject so they can be informed as candidates. If she is entitled to receive classified intelligence briefings from the DNI, I see no reason why she shouldn’t be filled in on SOFA.

The New York Times has an investigative story on Obama advisor David Axelrod’s consulting work.

Throughout the presidential campaign, Senator Barack Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod, has not hesitated to call out his counterparts in opposing campaigns for having private business clients that he says conflict with their roles as political consultants.

During the Democratic primary, he criticized Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton over corporate public relations work by her top adviser, Mark Penn. Last weekend, he accused Senator John McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, of selling access to public officials on behalf of his lobbying clients. In response, Mr. Davis asserted that Mr. Axelrod does the same thing.

Mr. Axelrod is certainly familiar with the ways that corporations seek to influence government and public policy. A look at his consulting business shows that in addition to a successful career working for more than 150 political campaigns, he has also provided his communications skills to a roster of corporations and nonprofit groups. Like his counterpart at the McCain campaign, he has often the goal of swaying government decision makers in favor of his clients.

Mr. Axelrod’s services, though, have been confined to public relations and advertising — he has never been a registered lobbyist. And unlike Mr. Penn and Mr. Davis, whose firms represented controversial clients in the midst of the presidential campaign, no comparable potential conflicts have emerged between Mr. Axelrod’s consulting business and his current work for Mr. Obama. Most of Mr. Axelrod’s clients predate the presidential campaign.

Even so, in a political climate hypersensitized to questions about the influence of “special interests,” Mr. Axelrod’s corporate work has remained largely obscured — his clients’ names were removed from his firm’s Web site several years ago, part of a series of revisions that minimized details of that side of his business.

The identities of some of his past clients appeared in the press over the last year, including AT&T, Cablevision and the University of Chicago Medical Center. A fuller picture emerges from a review of public records, including an archived version of his Web site that contains an early list of companies and organizations his firm has worked with.

Welcome to the wonderful and lucrative world of political consulting. Although there’s no allegation of quid pro quo or conflict of interest in Axelrod’s case, it’s easy to understand why and how so many political consultants from both parties get tempted to take on contracts that could come back to haunt them or their candidates later.

All eyes in Washington and the political world will be on Meet the Press this Sunday morning, more so than usual.

Colin Powell, former secretary of state, and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, will be a guest on Meet The Press this Sunday, fueling increased speculation that he will finally make an endorsement in the 2008 race, with only a couple weeks until the election.

Powell, despite being a Republican, has been neutral so far this cycle, fomenting rumors in certain political circles that he may endorse Sen. Barack Obama.

” It’s going to make a lot of news, and certainly be personally embarrassing for McCain,” a McCain official said to Politico’s Mike Allen, on a possible Powell endorsement of Obama. “It comes at a time when we need momentum, and it would create momentum against us.”

Tom DeFrank and Howard Fineman talked to several anonymous Powell sources. DeFrank’s sources were much more assertive in their thinking that Powell would get behind Obama, but Fineman got the same impression from his contacts as well. For all anyone knows, they could be talking to the same people.

If Powell does get behind Obama, it will dominate media cycles for at least two or three days, and will be a stunning symbolic rebuke of the Republican party and its presidential candidate, a man Powell considers a friend to whom he gave $2,300 in August of 2007 when many thought his campaign was finished.

From Patrick Ruffini at The Next Right, citing internal NRCC polling data:

The Tarrance Group for the NRCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/9 in parens):

Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 29 (56)
Tom Rooney (R): 55 (31)
(MoE: ±5.8%)

The Democrats are toast in this district if Mahoney stays in. And I seem to remember something about the incumbent’s name staying on the ballot if he does withdraw.

Mahoney’s political career is over. What I don’t know is if the Democrats can find a replacement for him on such short notice even if he does withdraw.